Wednesday, April 16, 2025

The State of Marjorie Taylor Greene.

April 16, 2025.

"There's no reason for screaming, yelling, ridiculous outrageous protesting. That disrupts the event for every single person that is there," Greene said.

🆕 I’m moving to Substack! Thanks for following me here. I’m moving the archives to Substack and will email you when the move is complete (next week?) This one is brand new, written for today. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

“In a city that loves political pomp and circumstance, there’s no more elaborate display than the annual State of the Union address,” NBC New said in a preview of the 2018 event.

The formal basis for the State of the Union Address is from Article II, Section 3, of the Constitution, which says the president “shall from time to time give to the Congress information of the state of the union and recommend to their consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.”

“Each year, before a joint session of Congress, the president fulfills his or her constitutional duty,” Senate.gov says. “Presidents George Washington and John Adams delivered their messages in person, but in 1801 Thomas Jefferson chose to send his in writing. That precedent held until Woodrow Wilson decided to deliver his message in person in 1913, a tradition that continues today. Franklin Roosevelt referred to it as the "State of the Union Address," a title that became official during the Harry Truman administration.”

Republican Marjorie Taylor Green has been the US Representative for Georgia’s 14^th congressional district since 2021.

In March of 2022, “Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., repeatedly interrupted and interjected during President Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address,” ABC News reported.

During the February 2023 State of the Union Address, “President Biden was about midway through a speech of about 7,218 words when a Republican lawmaker tried to shut him down with a single one: “Liar!’” the NYT said. “It was Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia”

In March of 2024, “The far-right representative from Georgia with a history of interrupting the president at the State of the Union, shouted at Mr. Biden about crimes committed by undocumented migrants, leading him to go off script,” NYT said.

"There's no reason for screaming, yelling, ridiculous outrageous protesting. That disrupts the event for every single person that is there," Greene said following her April 15 Town Hall meeting according to Newsweek. She added they should, "handle their business in the voting booth."

At the meeting, police tased two protesters. A total of nine people were ejected, three of whom were arrested.

“After the event, Greene told reporters she was ‘very thankful’ how police handled the protests, calling the attendees ‘out of line’ and saying ‘this isn't a political rally or a protest’,” Newsweek said.

People Magazine reported Greene went on to reference Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the immigrant who was accidently deported to El Salvador, saying that a protester was removed “just like that illegal alien.”

Notes

https://www.instagram.com/repmtg/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/sotu-fun-facts-written-report-primetime-pomp-circumstance-n842606

https://history.house.gov/Institution/SOTU/State-of-the-Union/#:~:text=The%20formal%20basis%20for%20the,%2C%20Section%203%2C%20Clause%201.

https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/photograph-records/63-159?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.senate.gov/about/traditions-symbols/state-of-the-union.htm#:~:text=Each%20year%2C%20before%20a%20joint,during%20the%20Harry%20Truman%20administration.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/gop-reps-greene-boebert-heckle-biden-throughout-sotu-address-n1290558

Photo Source: KnowYourMeme.com / original via C-SPAN.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/biden-state-of-the-union.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/us/politics/laken-riley-sotu-biden-marjorie-taylor-greene.html

https://acworthtourism.org/directory-things_to_do/listing/acworth-community-center/

https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-issues-statement-after-town-hall-protesters-tasered-2060248

https://people.com/2-protestors-tased-others-removed-at-marjorie-taylor-greene-town-hall-11716162

Saturday, April 12, 2025

The Third-Worlding of America

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Fast Fun Facts Follow-Up. Trump Emergencies.

April 6, 2025.

On February 6, 1974, the House voted 410-4 authorizing the Judiciary Committee to consider impeachment proceedings against President Nixon.

In July, the Committee voted 27-11 to pass Articles of Impeachment. Six of seventeen Republicans voted aye. Nixon resigned on August 9, before the full House began deliberations. Technically, he was never impeached.

Efforts followed quickly to constrain what was seen as overly expansive presidential power. A sweeping series of reforms were enacted to reshape the balance of power.

Among those reforms was the National Emergencies Act of 1976, which formalized the process for presidents to declare national emergencies, required the president to report to Congress to justify the declaration of an emergency, and provided Congress the ability to end the emergency.

Trump’s emergencies.

On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA).

“Using his IEEPA authority, President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all countries,” a White House announcement said. He “will impose an individualized reciprocal higher tariff on the countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits.”

Starting with President Wilson in 1917, ninety national emergencies have been declared in the last 108 years. Trump has declared seven in less than three months, including three on inauguration day.

The Constitution grants Congress the right to impose tariffs. Congress delegated that right to the president in circumstances that “threaten to impair the national security,” or that “burden or restrict” the US commerce. In either scenario Congress outlined procedural requirements before tariffs would take effect.

Trump does not acknowledge that last part. “Trump’s decision to use IEEPA is certainly more expedient, but it is also a novel application of that law and an end run around the process specifically set up by Congress to authorize presidential tariff authority,” according to an article in Lawfare. See the link in the Notes for a great analysis.

Congressional reaction.

The Republican controlled Congress has so far acceded to Trump’s every wish with nary a whimper. But a handful of Senators have voiced concern about the tariffs.

“For too long, Congress has delegated its clear authority to regulate interstate and foreign commerce to the executive branch,” Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said in a statement last week.

Might tariffs be the line in the sand that causes Republicans to stand up to Trump? Probably not.

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) said workers in his state are, “absolutely thrilled,” with the tariffs. Most Republicans are toeing the same line.

And it may not matter. The Lawfare article concludes that neither Congress nor the courts are likely to overturn the new tariffs.

Paraphrasing the concerns Congressman Jonathan Bingham (D-NY) voiced in 1976, the article says, “Trump is using IEEPA as a source of ‘unlimited power … to act virtually at will’—the very thing IEEPA was meant to prevent.”

Notes.

https://watergate.info/impeachment/articles-of-impeachment/

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/lessons-from-watergate/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_in_the_United_States

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/are-tariffs-an-emergency-power

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5231295-trump-tariffs-reaction-republicans/

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-republicans-senate-house-2409e9ff50290edac738ad6e4e8e78b9

https://www.newsweek.com/tariffs-donald-trump-republican-critics-full-list-2055640

Saturday, April 5, 2025

Fun Facts. "The Whys."

Friday, April 4, 2025.

The US economy is huge and complex. As the stock markets roil after President Trump pushed the nuclear tariff button, here are some fun facts to take your mind off your 401k or toss around at your next cocktail party. Just facts. Data for Russia is shown as it will be important for future discussion.

COVID-19 and 2020.

Few years have been as consequential as 2020. Everything, including the economy, is still in recovery mode.

January 1, 2020: Wuhan seafood market closed.

January 16: First Trump impeachment trial starts.

January 20: CDC reports first US case of COVID-19.

March 17-28: COVID lockdowns begin.

April 16: Trump issues plan for states to reopen.

May 19: US unemployment rate hits 14.7%.

May 25: George Floyd dies while being arrested.

September 18: Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg dies.

September 22: US COVID death toll passes 200,000.

October 2: Trump tests positive for COVID.

November 3: Biden defeats Trump.

November 4: CDC reports 100,000 daily new case rate for COVID.

December 10: Pfizer COVID vaccine approved; effectiveness is 95%.

January 20, 2021: Biden inauguration.

The market.

US stocks have shown powerful performance since the Great Recession of 2008. Here is a look at the value of the benchmark S&P 500 since then. S&P value is shown for the date each president left office, followed by the change in value during their term. Trump data, of course, is to date.

Obama: 2,263. +181%.

Trump 1: 3,799. +67%.

Biden: 5,252. +36%.

Trump 2: 5,074. -16% (11 weeks).

GDP by country.

Data for 2024 show the US has the largest Gross Domestic Product in the world by a long shot and was still growing. Data shown is GDP and one year growth, 2023-2024.

US: $29 trillion, $1.4 trillion.

China: $18 trillion, $550 billion.

Germany: $4.7 trillion, $187 billion.

Canada: $2.2 trillion, $72 billion (rank 10).

Russia: $2.1 trillion, $175 billion (rank 11).

The US has had positive GDP growth in every year for the last 30 years except for the 2009 global recession and the 2020 pandemic. In 2021 US GDP grew 5.8%.

Per capita GDP.

The US economy is productive on a per capita basis. Here is how countries ranked using 2023 data, the latest available.

Luxembourg 1.

Switzerland 2.

US 7.

Macao 8.

Hong Kong 20.

Macao and Hong Kong are Special Administrative Regions of China. China proper and Russia were far below top 20 countries.

Export nations.

China is the world’s largest export nation. The US still exports a lot.

China: $3.4 trillion.

US: $2 trillion.

Germany: $1.6 trillion.

Everywhere else: <$1 trillion.

Russia: Not in top 12.

Trade deficits.

No surprise, the US has run a trade deficit for decades. For a good summary, check out the link in the notes to the WSJ’s “What to know about the US trade deficit in charts,” which also has a good explanation of the unique method Trump used to calculate tariffs.

Here are the top US trade deficits for 2024 in billions.

China: -$270.

Mexico: -$157.

Vietnam: -$113.

Ireland: -$80.

Canada: -$55 (9^th).

Why did Trump do it?

And therein lie Trump’s tariff beefs, which are mostly not about tariffs.

When Trump accuses countries of placing high tariffs on the US, he doesn’t use tariff by its literal definition--a direct tax on goods. Instead, he measures tariffs by whatever the US trade deficit is with a given country and includes the items below.

Tariffs.

Non-tarrif trade barriers.

Back-door imports.

Currency manipulation.

“Non-tariff barriers are trade barriers that restrict the import or export of goods through means other than tariffs. The World Trade Organization (WTO) identifies various non-tariff barriers to trade, including import licensing, pre-shipment inspections, rules of origin, custom delayers,” according to the Corporate Finance Institute.

Back-door imports are when countries like China relocate factories to countries with lower tariffs and import barriers to the US compared to imports direct from China. Mexico, Vietnam, and Cambodia are China’s favorites. Back-door imports through Mexico enjoy the additional benefit of “near-shoring,” or reduced shipping costs.

Currency manipulation. In his first term, Trump targeted countries he felt were manipulating their currencies, including China, Germany, and South Korea. Vietnam and Cambodia are also accused.

Who got whacked?

That explains who got whacked the hardest. Just look at the list of countries that top the US trade deficit chart.

Vietnam and Cambodia got hit with 46% and 49% tariffs respectively. Both countries quickly signaled they would lower tariffs, but both already have low tariffs. The larger issue is their alleged currency manipulation and non-tariff trade barriers. They are also among China’s favorite countries for back-door imports to the US, although Mexico tops that list.

China got hit with 34% tariffs on direct imports. That was on top of two 10% tariffs Trump had already imposed since January. Total US tariffs on China are now 54%. China quickly announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on the US.

Mexico was spared in this round of tariffs, although a 25% tariff previously levied on autos, steel, and aluminum still stands. Mexico may have been shielded because of the USMCA trade agreement, US, Mexico, Canada, which Trump negotiated in his first term.

Ireland is part of the EU, which only got hit with 20% tariffs. But Trump has his eye on them because their low corporate tax rate has lured many companies to establish headquarters there. About half of US pharmaceutical imports are from Irish companies.

What happens next?

The facts are not yet known.

Opinion. Trump believes he can negotiate new deals with each of the countries he claims are treating the US unfairly. That is very Trumpian.

In Trump’s transactional world view, he holds the cards in this global trade game. The enormous US economy, see above, gives him a giant pile of chips. Trump is all in. So are we.

You’ve probably heard references this week to the last time the US imposed large tariffs. The Smoot-Hawley Act was passed in 1930, as the country was entering a depression. It imposed 25% tariffs on imports intending to protect US farmers and businesses. Instead, it kicked off a global trade war that is credited with pushing the US into what became known as the Great Depression.

Notes.

https://nashuproar.org/39777/features/the-14-most-important-events-of-2020/

https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html

https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820

https://darrowwealthmanagement.com/blog/stock-market-performance-by-president-in-charts/

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/270180/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264623/leading-export-countries-worldwide/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-trade-deficit-narrows-february-2025-04-03/

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-to-know-about-the-u-s-trade-imbalance-in-charts-79b25c0b

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/business/economy/us-trade-deficit-2024-record.html

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/us-trade-deficit-by-country

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/03/business/trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-countries-list-dg/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-china-tariffs.html

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/non-tariff-barriers/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/china-donald-trump-tariffs-recession--us-stock-market

https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/04/04/mexico-rejoices-dodging-new-us-tariffs-but-still-hit-by-economic-woes

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/us/politics/trump-currency-manipulators.html

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cx2g1dwk27do

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/12/donald-trump-ireland-micheal-martin-white-house-meeting

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

What is Trump’s End Game? “The Whys.”

April 1, 2025.

This is a good day to start digging into “the Whys,” the big questions that get us to President Trump’s end game?

It is a good day because Corey Booker has been on the Senate floor since 7:00 pm last night, talking mostly to an empty Senate chamber. Other Senators have been coming in this morning to ask questions, so that Booker can have a break without relinquishing the floor. It is 11:00 am as I start writing, he has been at it for 16 hours. If he continues past noon, it will delay the start of a scheduled session of the Senate.

Booker is attacking Trump at the macro level. He came with a list. He is tackling Trump’s agenda piece by piece and putting them into a larger context. He is waving a copy of the Constitution as I type.

It is a good day because last month, in Raising An Army, I faulted Booker for thinking too small. When asked on Meet the Press if Democrats should be arguing that Trump was creating a Constitutional crisis, Booker balked. His focus, he said, was on how specific Trump policies were hurting individuals.

Senator Booker is finally asking the Whys. Why is Trump demolishing American democracy? Why is he tossing away 80 years of post WWII international relations? What does Trump really want? Is there a grand plan? And why does he have to be so angry and cruel?

Spoiler alert. Nobody is sure why. That may include Trump.

Hillary Clinton does not know. “If there’s a grand strategy at work here, I don’t know what it is,” the former Secretary of State and presidential candidate said in a March 28, NYT Opinion piece, How Much Dumber Will This Get?

Republican members of Congress do not know. “GOP lawmakers don’t yet know the full scope of what Trump has dubbed ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and possibly other duties the White House is preparing to unveil Wednesday,” Politico reported two days before they are to be announced.

Ukrainian President Zelensky did not know when he arrived in the Oval Office last month. After being shouted at by Vice President Vance and Trump, he walked out with more questions than he came in with.

Xi Jinping does not know. In this, “rather wild and hard to interpret moment in the US China relationship,” Daniel Kurtz-Phelan began the March 27 Foreign Affairs Interview podcast, Xi and China are waiting for Trump to signal his intentions on tariffs, Taiwan, and a host of other issues.

“From Beijing’s perspective, I don’t think that they are gloating, I don’t think they are cowering in fear,” Ryan Haas said on the podcast. “I think they are struggling to make sense of what is going on.” Haas is a Fellow at the Brookings Institute and former policy expert at the NSC and the State Department.

Political opponents, other Republicans, allies, and adversaries do not know what Trump is up to, or what his end game is. One must wonder how that can be good for the US, or good for the world.

But it is 2:00 pm. Booker is 19 hours in and still going strong. “Don’t let this be another regular day in America,” he just pleaded.

A steady stream of Democrats is rallying to his side, uniting to make a larger point about a bigger picture than Trump du jour.

So, thank you to my Senator. Thank you to those joining him. Thank you for realizing we have a big picture problem. I hope it is not too late.

The next few posts will be chunks of the bigger picture. I will share information and theories others propose about the Whys. I hope that taken together they add up to something helpful. And I will try to keep each short.

Notes.

https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/6394446540685225955/2695900683990683190

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/opinion/trump-hegseth-signal-chat.html?searchResultPosition=11

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/31/republican-tariffs-trump-states-exemptions-00259301

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/where-us-china-relationship-headed